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International Monetary Fund (IMF) retains India’s growth forecast for 2021 at 9.5%, cuts global economy to 5.9%



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) retained India’s growth forecast for 2021 at 9.5 per cent, after reducing the growth rate by three percentage points from 12.5 per cent in July, following a severe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

Here are the top 10 points of this big story

  1. According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday, the Indian economy – which contracted by a record 7.3 per cent due to the pandemic, is expected to grow at 8.5 per cent in 2022.

  2. The 9.5 per cent growth forecast for 2021 is similar to the estimate for FY 2021-22 by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on October 8.

  3. The World Bank has projected India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year 2021-22 at 8.3 per cent as against the earlier estimate of 10.1 per cent. The World Bank has said in its report that India’s growth will be supported by increased public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing.

  4. India’s economy grew by 20.1 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal and the sharp jump in gross domestic product (GDP) was mainly on account of the low base effect as the economy contracted a record 24.4 per cent in the previous fiscal. The period from a year ago – when COVID-19 first entered the country.

  5. The IMF in its latest WEO update released ahead of its annual meeting and the World Bank cut the global economic forecast from six per cent to 5.9 per cent.

  6. The United States and China saw major cuts in growth estimates. The IMF projected the growth rate for the US at six percent – one percentage point lower, and for China at eight percent – 0.1 percentage point lower.

  7. According to IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, the advanced economy grouping is expected to regain its pre-pandemic trend path in 2022 and up 0.9 per cent in 2024.

  8. “In contrast, aggregate output for the emerging market and developing economy group (excluding China) is expected to be 5.5 percent lower than the pre-pandemic forecast in 2024, resulting in a major setback for improving their living standards,” he said. said.

  9. According to Ms. Gopinath, the most important policy priority is to vaccinate at least 40 per cent of the population in every country by the end of 2021 and 70 per cent of the population by the middle of 2022.

  10. “This will require high-income countries to meet existing vaccine dose donation pledges, to prioritize delivery to COVAX in the near future, and for manufacturers to remove trade restrictions on vaccines and their inputs,” the Indian-American economist said. You have to coordinate.”


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