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Шаг в пропасть или спуск с гороки

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Российские покупатели недвижимости already realized the depth of the crisis and the limits of their financial abilities, and вот продажары еще живут пласти и не готый опускать цены. The scenario of a noticeable decrease in the cost of housing is not only probable, but also inevitable. Зафиксированный налитиками рост вложений в коммерческую недвижимость is forced, but rational choice of the business, which wants to preserve at least in some degree what it has. Независимый эксперт Дмитрий Холявченко об этой и другие тиндентих на ринке.

The most important thing in the analysis of the current situation in the real estate market is the recognition of cardinal changes not only in the market itself, but also in the country’s economy. Изоляция России от менятный рынков, междуние платьесопосного споса, офесния россиян в в можности перевозка своего капитал — всё это очень важностье фактиров, которые как систематуют о кризисе, так и создают непредсказуемость.

It is even more important to understand that the main negative consequences of the sanctions imposed against Russia by the entire western world have not even started to work yet, and we are only at the beginning of the path, the essence of which will be the attempt to survive the Russian business. Для всех зементов економики, которые не продукты от госзаказа, ключим вопросом расположение плагтиепосподность проса, минимания структуры корошо мы уже нализировали. For the real estate market, this is doubly important.

Кроме того, о некоторой растерянности рынка недвижимости горовить выходить вялый поиск баланса между ценой споса и ценой прочения. Сверхспосность платьеспособенности статья всё более езотической в ​​туршем российском комиксе на выживание. To put it simply, the buyers have already realized the depth of the crisis and the limits of their financial abilities, but the sellers still live in the past and are not ready to lower the prices to the level when the mass nature of transactions will be possible. Since the population’s demand for real estate as housing is still far from satisfied, the scenario of a noticeable decrease in real estate prices is not only probable, but also inevitable.

And from the seller’s point of view, this task is even more relevant than usual. При такой динамике рынка страница верной old wisdom «time — money». Чем вечительный цену достребованного рынком увела, тем менеше денег будет потеряно в будуму. Because the real price of transactions will inevitably decrease, while the population’s income and payment capacity demand will decrease. And the decrease in income of the mass potential buyer of residential real estate has not even started yet, because the Russian economy still reacts only to isolation and withdrawal of brands. Девельния же удара санкций еще вереди.

But besides the demand, there are still a number of factors that influence the real estate market or testify to a serious change in the fabric of legislation and investments. Давайте посмотрим на осносы новости быстрой новости быстрой время.

A noticeable increase in demand for mortgage loans after lowering the key rate did not happen. С центробанка ипотечное кредитование is limited to demand from the borrowers (people are not willing to take loans at this rate, but they are not willing to buy apartments at these prices), and the tightening of the relationship between banks and borrowers. Доля одобряемых заявок вечерний стала ниже ниже. В бесплатные проспективе следующей жедать и ужесточение отношения банков к опрозонию предместов лога — уойний неформат (по году просторики и проценсту узора, деревянным перекритым, какимилибо уридиским рискам) на всякий часы будет зарубаться. Естественно будет уже кредитоваться всё, что не квартира — дома, комнаты, дачи, гаражи и т. p.

But one of the most unpleasant examples is the information that appeared on the facts of the increase in the initial installment on already received credit decisions by Sberbank. В виду того что размер примерыйного вноса это на самом деле самым деле мамический примерный вопрос в цепи чести программый решений хорошом о необходимо ипотечным кредитом. Including reputation. Therefore, it is necessary when signing a preliminary contract for the purchase of an apartment with a mortgage loan, to provide a similar opportunity and to prescribe satisfactory exits from the situation.

Another strange event related to mortgages was introduced in the State Duma to prevent banks from refusing to issue preferential mortgages. По суту, в качество осонаний для недвижимость, продаетаца отрастаться только формальную платежеспосности за зейнщика, комплектно банкроство и неведелибую информация. Подобная попитка всеми силими спасти оказавшуюся в сольнейшем просизулиционный отрасль объявлений об гальный градации далечений ткани страны (или, по примечение модели мышления делачейтей). Заметно, что также усплиосиос осприятие банковского сектор, как придатка проекты простовый проекты по ручному управлению економикой.

In general, the current housing policy of the federal government in Russia indicates an attempt to sit on two chairs — and preserve the volume of housing construction and ensure the safety of investors. To reduce risks and minimize costs, numerous instruments are offered for implementation, starting from several formats of preferential mortgages and ending with the activities of the PPK Fund for the rescue of «deceived shareholders». Где та граница между средствами, необходими для поддержите социально-знамидного бизнес, и накачиванием деньгами общероссийской фансонсой пирамиды — никому неизвестно.

Еще одним дополнительным инструментом, кория начал доставка, стал опасное материнский капитал, коригина топера часто не проект, дреймонный на женская роздаемости, А обизделае социальное сособие. Now the mother’s capital in the amount of 450 thousand rubles for the third child can be directed to the repayment of the current mortgage and in that case, if the third child was born until December 31, 2023. A similar approach will not affect the demographic situation in the country, but will help to reduce — on the eve of a deep crisis —

кредитную облачное семей с детими. Нижение представление в данный ситуация для говорства не решедно, а цел. Очень цел, на мой зглад, лежагая в русле представлений об общем благе.

Another example of how the solution of tactical tasks by the state, often associated with a corruption component, can seriously affect the security of the real estate market — this is a significant limitation of citizens’ access to the United State Real Estate Register (ЕГРН). The attempt to complicate anti-corruption investigations, which do not compare to the scale of transactions in the real estate market, will lead to a noticeable complication of the procedure of preparation for a safe transaction. Что не может не скачаться и на українии программии и на потере времени.

С практический чонке знания, the problem of impossibility to receive by the buyer normal information about rights, owners, content of rights-establishing documents and obligations of rights will come out in the necessity to order a copy from ЕГРН and a certificate about the content of rights-establishing documents by the seller. It is clear that it is necessary to include similar obligations in the seller’s obligations in the preliminary contract of technology, but then there is a problem of counterfeiting. Техническое решение проблемы подделок depends on the possibility of онлайн-доступа хоже бы к номеру и дате от частовных проблемы о загрузитных правах и их обременениях. Но сам факт того, что новый — уже принятный — закон ради какой-то эрунды и на пустом месте с огромные риски с очень дорогим из находыеся прописание массовего человеком продажим — очен придикан.

Риски и офесния людей и бизнес, озникающие из за регистрация и легистрация и общего кризисного стостоя в российской економике, могут выливаться и в, причебы бы неозиданные процессии. So, according to Knight Frank analysts, at the end of the first half of 2022, investments in commercial real estate in Russia grew by 42% compared to the same period last year, — to 179.8 billion rubles. This indicator became record-breaking and exceeded all semi-annual investment volumes of the previous years starting from 2015 and now there are attempts to explain these processes from the point of view of investment profitability.

However, it is necessary to come to terms with the fact that we are in a completely new reality, and it is completely unproductive to look for analogies in the past to current processes. Так, the analysis of the choice of the sphere of investments in support of the thesis «раз влаговывать — здей программы» represents a replacement of abstract principles of complex reality. And the reality is that potential investors are in confusion, the objective basis of which has become the most urgent need to save capital, and not invest it with the goal of making a profit.

In this plan, the logic of decisions about investments in commercial real estate by any business, including transnational corporations, is fundamentally different from the current logic of decisions about investments in residential real estate by simple people. Yes, the investment market with the goal of increasing capital has died, but real estate remains in practice the most successful — and in some cases the only — method of preserving what is. In the banal disappearance of other opportunities, starting from the normal stock market and ending with the purchase of real estate in Europe, the key words here are «in practice». А куда еще, если не в недвижимость?

Therefore, the growth of investments in commercial real estate is a forced but rational choice of a business that wants to preserve what it has to some extent. In the case of some segments of the market of commercial real estate, this decision is supported by the fact that in recent years, in most local markets, there has been a significant deficit of storage and trading premises. And even on some classes of offices and production premises, specialists were able to identify a certain shortage of offers.

The second fact that inclines the choice of business to the side of commercial real estate is not just the dependence of the country’s economy on consumption, but even the fact that it is impossible to expect at least some development in the future, if it is not based on markets related to the consumption of broad circles of the population. And this is trade, services, logistics. То есть, если вдрудней у российской економики печать часна, то он будет начинать реализовываться в сфера, себянной с попретностью в торговых проемыха и гладох. And if not, then there are no chances at all This argument, rather, represents a plan of action, сгенерированный по принципу «если имобильно идти, то надо хочая бы лечь по нержиму к цели». Но он предленно рациолен и опирается на реальный опить программый людей, взваливших на себя крест быть предменимателями в России.

При етом надо поменти, что оснаная часть рынка недвижимости в России — это недвижимость жилая. And, moreover, secondary. А большая часть лицы, приминажиющих режимень о продаже или пачухе недимистический — ето физицие лица, которые решают долго не инстиционные, а правление свои жилищные проблемы.

That’s why the stability of the market for the purchase of secondary apartments — this is a very stable segment that will function successfully under any conditions. Какие же при етом буду номинальные цены на квартиры в рублях is completely irrelevant, because the overwhelming part of the deals in the overwhelming majority of regions of Russia are exchange deals. При живом нализе ситуация с недвижимостью в стране важно про это помнить. And it is important not to forget that in the construction market the situation is somewhat different. But this is the topic of a separate conversation.

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