Nearly every country on Earth could experience extremely warm years every other year by 2030, according to a new research Thursday shedding light on the outsized contribution of emissions from the world’s major pollutants.
The modeling study combined data on historical emissions and promises made ahead of the COP26 climate summit to cut cuts from the top five emitters – China, the US, the European Union, India and Russia – to predict regional warming by 2030.
The researchers found that 92 percent of the 165 countries studied are expected to experience extremely warm annual temperatures every two years, defined as the warmest year in the pre-industrial era once in a hundred years. .
Alexander Knowles of Climate Analytics, a co-author of the study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, said that in itself was “very striking”.
“It really reflects the urgency and how we’re going to go into a world that’s too hot for everyone,” he told AFP news agency.
To see the scale of the contribution of the world’s five biggest emitters to this prediction, the authors looked at what the picture would be without their emissions since 1991, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first reported human-caused emissions. Governments were warned. Climate change.
They found that the proportion of countries affected by extreme warm years would drop to about 46 percent.
Lead author Lee Beuch, from the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich University, said the study found “a clear impression” of the actions of top emitters at the regional level.
“It seems very important to me, because we usually talk about these intangible amounts of emissions, or global temperatures, that we know about, but we can’t really feel,” she said.
“While regional climate change is very close to what we are going to experience – we are going to experience this warming and an increasing frequency of extremely hot years in our country.”
The researchers found the greatest effect in terms of the frequency of extremely hot years in tropical Africa.
“Because this is an area that has traditionally had fairly low year-to-year temperature variability, even in comparison to other regions set to experience moderate average warming, it is actually Keeps it out of its known climate envelope.”
But he said the greatest overall temperature increase occurs in the northern high-latitude regions, which are warming at a faster rate than the tropics.
The authors stressed that predictions of the frequency of peak years could be reversed if countries significantly advance pollution reduction efforts.
According to the UN’s climate change body UNFCCC, current plans would see emissions increase by 13.7 percent by 2030, when the Paris Agreement would require them to drop by nearly half to keep the 1.5C warming limit within reach.
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